Monday, January 09, 2006

AKs on SB, against BB and 5 plain callers on 10 players table

This is a hand that I played strange, but feel pretty happy with the way I played it.

I'm with AKs against 5 callers on the SB, on a crypto long handed table of 10 players. I do not have any information on the players, besides that all hands have a lot of plain callers, and my image at the table should be of a very tight player.

The betting turn comes to me, and I decide to plain call, mostly because I feel I can get called by a lot of people, and if I miss the board someone will sure hit it. Plus, If I hit TPTK somebody could hit a set and I can loose big time. Now I'm not sure if to plain call was a mistake or not, it probabdly was.

So, I plain call 1BB. Now the BB raises to 5BB, and every single players call, so the betting turn comes back to me. Now, I'm looking at a pot with 31BB that it costs me 4BB to call, pretty interesting pot, plus all players but the BB have shown that they are not much strong, cause nobody re-raised the BB.

I think for a moment, and see two scenarios:
1) I go all in and I'm called. I'm probably a small underdog against a pair, or a big favorite against to overcards (I don't think to overcards are going to call here).
2) I go all in and I'm not called, I keep the 31BB pot for me.

So in overall I think I have positive equity going all in, so I go all in. Get the BB calling with QQ after thinking for a while, hit my K on the turn, and won the hand.

I kept thinking about this all in, and see another good point, I eliminated the position advantage on my caller (or callers) by going all in. And, I do the math, and I think it was justified to go all in there, independently that I ended being the winer of the hand (see math at the end of the message, all numbers expressed as BBs)

I posted this hand on Internet Texas Holdem and got a couple of comments.

One is that I should had take into account for the math the probabilitie that I get called by AA or KK. Very True.

Another one is about just plain calling the first time. And altough I agree that normally I should had to raise, I still didn't found a away to play this hand in a table with lot of callers. The problem I saw that lot of people will call a decent race leaving me in bad position happened, everybody called the 5BB bet from the other guy.
And, there was also another problem, that somebody could had limped with a monster hands waiting for the re-raise. When all the other players just called, I knew the only seriour risk was the guy on the SB.

Math Analysis
Item Ammount
MyStack 100
MyInvestment 1
Callers 6
CurrentBet 5
Pcall 50%
AllIn Callers 1
Pwin 46,049%
Pfold 50%
CurrentPot 31
ToCall 4
All In 99
PotNoCallsScenario 31
PotCallScenario 225
EVNoCallScenario 31
EVCallScenario 4,61
EV+ 17,81
EV+% 17,98%
P Fold required for ALL IN -17,47%
P win required for ALL IN 30,22%
For Him to Call 95
P Him 53,95%
Raised Pot 130
His EV 26,3898
His P required to CALL 42,22%

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